Job Market Candidates 2023/24
Ph.D. Program in Economics
Ph.D., Economics, Goethe University Frankfurt, GSEFM program, 2024 (expected)
M.Sc., Economics, Institute for Advanced Studies IHS, 2017
B.Sc., Economics, University of Vienna, 2015
Fields of Specialization
Main field: Macroeconomics
Subfields: Monetary Economics, Forecasting, Bayesian Econometrics
Undergraduate Level: Introductory Macroeconomics
Graduate Level: Solution, Identification, and Estimation of DSGE Models; Monetary Economics; Bayesian Econometrics
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Job Market Paper
Abstract: This paper investigates the importance of including data on new housing supply in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in forecasting the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) focusing on the U.S. case. While previous models have added a financial sector and real estate sector, they have largely ignored housing supply. For this, I develop an extended DSGE model that includes both the financial sector and an endogenous housing supply and show that forecasting accuracy significantly improves when data on new houses is included. I conduct a rigorous robustness check to confirm the importance of these additions to the model. The findings demonstrate that the combination of the extended model and housing supply data is necessary for accurate forecasting during periods of economic crisis. I identify negative housing demand shocks and escalating adjustment costs as primary drivers of the GFC, which propagated into the real economy and got accelerated through the financial sector. Additionally, this paper addresses the zero lower bound challenge in modeling forward guidance using a novel regime change approach, aligning with current macroeconomic research.