Job Market Candidates 2023/24
Ph.D. Program in Economics
Ph.D., Economics, Goethe University Frankfurt, GSEFM program, 2024 (expected)
M.Sc., Quantitative Economics, Goethe University Frankfurt, GSEFM program, 2021
B.Sc., Finance and Accounting, Vietnamese-German University and Goethe University Frankfurt (Double degree), 2018
Fields of Specialization
Primary: International Macroeconomics, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Environmental Macroeconomics, Digital Money
Secondary: Macro-Finance, International Finance, Nonlinearity Solution Method, Heterogenous Agent Model, Epidemic Macro Model
Macroeconomics, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Environmental Macroeconomics
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Job Market Paper
Abstract: What is the macro-financial impact of carbon policy, and how should reserve requirements be set to deal with climate-related transition risks? My empirical evidence shows a 0.6% output loss and a rise of 0.3% in inflation in response to the shock on carbon policy. Furthermore, I also observe financial instability and allocation effects between the clean and highly polluted energy sectors. To have a better prediction of medium and long-term impact, using a medium-large macro-financial DSGE model with environmental aspects, I show the recessionary effect of an ambitious carbon price implementation to achieve climate targets, a 40% reduction in GHG emissions causes a 0.7% output loss while reaching a zero-emission economy in 30 years causes a 2.6% lasting output loss over the medium to longer term. I document an amplified effect of the banking sector during the transition path. The paper also uncovers the beneficial role of pre-announcements of carbon policies in mitigating inflation volatility by 0.2% at its peak, and our results suggest well-communicated carbon policies from authorities and investing to expand the green sector. My findings also stress the use of optimal green monetary and financial policies in mitigating the effects of transition risk and assisting the transition to a zero-emission world. Utilizing a heterogeneous approach with macroprudential tools, I find that optimal macroprudential tools can mitigate the output loss by 0.1% and investment loss by 1%. Importantly, my work highlights the use of capital flow management in the green transition when a global cooperative solution is challenging.
Transition Risk Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy
with Alexander Dueck, IMFS Working Paper NO. 187
Abstract: Climate change has become one of the most prominent concerns globally. In this paper, we study the transition risk of greenhouse gas emission reduction in structural environmental-macroeconomic DSGE models. First, we analyze the uncertainty in model prediction on the effect of unanticipated and pre-announced carbon price increases. Second, we conduct optimal model-robust policy in different settings. We find that reducing emissions by 40% causes 0.7% - 4% output loss with 2% on average. Pre-announcement of carbon prices affects the inflation dynamics significantly. The central bank should react slightly less to inflation and output growth during the transition risk. With optimal carbon price designs, it should react even less to inflation, and more to output growth.
Macro-Financial Impacts of Foreign Digital Money
with Alexander Copestake, Evan Papageorgiou, Umang Rawat, Brandon Tan, S. Jay Peiris, under review for the IMF working paper and the IMF FinTech Notes
Abstract: We develop a two-country New Keynesian model with endogenous currency substitution and financial frictions to examine the impact on a small developing economy of a stablecoin issued in a large foreign economy. The stablecoin provides households in the domestic economy with liquidity services and an additional hedge against domestic inflation. Its introduction amplifies currency substitution, reducing bank intermediation and weakening monetary policy transmission, worsening the impacts of recessionary shocks and increasing banking sector stress. Capital controls raise stablecoin adoption as a means of circumvention, increasing exposure to spillovers from foreign shocks. Unlike a domestic CBDC, a ban on stablecoin payments can alleviate these effects.
Central Bank Digital Currency and Cryptocurrencies in Emerging Markets
Abstract: In this paper, I build a New Keynesian - Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK-DSGE) model to examine the implications of CBDCs and cryptocurrencies in an open economy, particularly for emerging markets. In our model, cryptocurrency is implemented as a form of deposit in the banking sector, where bankers can also receive deposits from abroad. Lastly, CBDC is introduced as a payment and savings instrument. I find that cryptocurrency plays a crucial role in the banking sector and has a significant effect on the dynamics of foreign debt, which is highly important for emerging markets. I also conduct optimal monetary policy analyses under different scenarios. Consequently, I uncover that the remuneration in CBDCs can affect the responses of the monetary rate and can maintain the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy, enhancing monetary pass-through. Hence, it assists central bankers in achieving the central bank's targets. However, the effect greatly depends on the design of CBDCs. Lastly, I find that imposing regulations through macroprudential policies on crypto assets can improve the welfare of the economy.